The Oscar ceremony begins in 24 hours — excellent, just time for me to make some wild and incomplete predictions about films of which I've only seen some. So, without further ado, I'm going to open the envelope:

Best Picture

Brokeback's been overhyped - it's been the far and away favourite for so long that everyone's bored with it. Look at what happened to Saving Private Ryan - it lost out to Shakespeare In Love probably because it had been the favourite for so long. And while no-one in the media spotlight is ever going to condemn it for being a gay cowboy movie (yes, yes, I know. It's not - it's a gay shepherd movie) in public, in the privacy of their own voting, I bet that some Academy members are still going to be uncomfortable with a movie that's upset large chunks of paying audienceMiddle America. Good Night and Good Luck and Capote will split the Nostalgia for The Heyday of Journalism vote, and you'll see what I have to say about Munich in the best director section. So by process of elimination, it has to be Crash. I know some of the messaging is a bit unsubtle, but there's a strong sub-theme of redemption, and a nicely underplayed Christmas spirit (not bad for a film released in the summer). The ensemble cast means that none of them are going to trouble the Best Leading Actor/Actress categories, so it'll pick up a few Let's give them something votes. And it's still the best film I've seen in a Very Long Time.

Winner: Crash

Best Leading Actor

This will probably go to Heath Ledger, not least as a consolation for not getting Best Picture.

Winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman, for Capote

The Academy really didn't like Brokeback...

Best Supporting Actor

William Hurt, utterly unrecognisable and totally believable as Viggo Mortensen's brother in A History of Violence, which was another cruelly overlooked film in the Big Oscars. 

Winner: George Clooney, for Syriana

Not seen this yet — sounds up my street, and this hasn't harmed it at all.

Best Leading Actress

Well if Heath Ledger wins Best Actor, then that'll be Quite Enough Wierd Sex Stuff thankyou. So Felicity Huffman's out. Judi Dench and Keira Knightley just did what they always do. North Country was generally duff and unbelievable, so that leaves Reese Witherspoon's excellent performance in Walk the Line. 

Winner: Reese Witherspoon

Best Animated Feature

Tough call - Tim Burton's always excellent, but Nick Park has his name engraved on the mould for this one. Howl's Moving Castle I think will be just too foreign to win here, unless the aforementioned two split the vote. At the end of the day, Gromit is possibly the best silent movie star since Harold Lloyd, and I think there are enough generic movie references (there are Exorcist gags, fer Pete's Sake) in Wallace and Gromit to make up for the UK-specifics (which I howled with laughter at), and clinch it. Besides, I think Katzenberg would quite like to win something. 

Winner: Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Best Director

Another tough one, other than to say that Spielberg's only in the list to politely applaud him for making another Serious Movie. As suggested above, I don't think this is a One films sweeps the board year - there are several really strong contenders. Could go to Capote or Good Night and Good Luck. Maybe the latter for the Clooney factor. 

Winner: Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain Here's your consolation prize, to a director who's already a well known and well-liked cinematic quantity.

Best Art Direction/Cinematography/Costume

Memoirs of a Geisha. Remaining true to Japanese it ain't (although, it's a Hollywood production of an American male author's novel, so did you really expect anything else?). Brilliantly written it ain't. Beautifully designed and shot, though, it is. I'm surprised Charlie and the Chocolate Factory wasn't nominated in Best Art Direction, mind. 

Winner in all three: Memoirs of a Geisha

Achievement in Visual Effects

I have two things to say on this: Firstly: anyone who nominated The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe in this category clearly didn't watch it. Half the creatures were obviously Blokes-In-Suits-With-Bits-Stuck-On, while the CG characters didn't actually sit in the landscape that well. A number of them were very obviously shot from mid-calf upwards, so they didn't have to composite the feet into grass. A very poor effor that really would have benefited from the Weta touch. And that's who will win, or there's no justice. One year, the Academy will allow performers who motion capture and voice a character to be nominated in the Best Actor/Actress categories. And then, Andy Serkis will be able to say It could have been me, you know. Watching Kong, you can see Andy's performance - his face, his emotions, his voice, everything. In LOTR, Gollum was clearly one of the main supporting actors. In Kong, Serkis carries the movie.

Winner: King Kong

So, my score: 7 out of 10, mostly least for getting Best Actor and Best Director the wrong way round for the location of the "Brokeback Consolation Prize". I think I can claim to only getting one seriously wrong, and that for a film I haven't seen at all, not even trailers.